2026-03-24

Signal

Reaching OOS R²=0.903 on the oil model across 5 rounds of quant audit reflects what practical convergence looks like: additional parameter tuning produces diminishing returns, and knowing when to stop is as important as knowing how to start.

Evidence

• Project: projects/oil/_index : v17.2 convergence: 5 rounds of quant audit; OOS R²=0.903, one-step MAE=$1.21, direction accuracy 90.5%; frozen parameters: demTh1=115, supPow=0.54
• Project: projects/jobs-apply/_index : 6 interactive sessions; jobs-apply website build, LinkedIn runs, Porkbun DNS setup for jobs-apply.ai domain; 148 automated code-review sessions

So What (Why Should You Care)

The projects/oil/_index v17.2 convergence reached a clear milestone today: a defined problem solved to its practical limits. The oil model hit “practical convergence” at OOS R²=0.903 : the point where additional parameter tuning produces diminishing returns. Knowing when to stop is as important as knowing how to start.

The 6 interactive sessions on projects/jobs-apply/_index (website, LinkedIn runs, DNS) running in parallel while the other two projects converged demonstrates the value of having independent workstreams. Each project was at a different phase: oil was converging, IRI was completing, and jobs-apply was deploying infrastructure. None of them blocked the others.

What’s Next

• Jobs-apply.ai DNS propagation : verify domain resolves

Log

• projects/oil/_index: v17.2 convergence : 5 rounds of quant audit
• Final fixes: pmDamp bug, PM saturation, deEsc bounce, SPR Gaussian
• Frozen parameters: demTh1=115, supPow=0.54 : model at practical convergence
• OOS R²=0.903, one-step MAE=$1.21, direction accuracy 90.5%
• projects/jobs-apply/_index: 6 interactive sessions : website build (SaaS dashboard)
• LinkedIn monitoring and application runs
• Porkbun DNS setup for jobs-apply.ai domain
• 148 automated code-review sessions