2026-03-17

Signal

At $60.78/week for AI scoring with only 347 of 2,860 entities passing a quality threshold, the real optimization wasn’t better scoring : it was gating AI calls behind deterministic pre-scoring to eliminate the 87.9% of entities that would obviously fail.

Evidence

• Project: projects/oil/_index : v15.1 Quant-Grade Model Validation: +14.55pp Brier advantage over Polymarket, 20-year quant audit; v15.2 Trading Strategy with 6 thresholds (+19pp to +45pp advantage range)
• Project: projects/jobs-apply/_index : Robust daily limit detection → automatic worker pause; lifetime project cost audit; failed job queue clearing fix
• Volume: 343 automated code-review sessions across projects

So What (Why Should You Care)

The Brier score advantage on the oil model (+14.55pp over Polymarket) is worth unpacking. A Brier score measures probability calibration : not just whether your predictions are directionally correct, but whether your confidence levels match reality. +14.55pp means the model isn’t just more accurate; it’s better calibrated. That matters for any use case where you’re acting on probabilities rather than binary yes/no predictions.

What’s Next

Log

• projects/oil/_index: v15.1 Quant-Grade Model Validation
• +14.55pp Brier score advantage over Polymarket
• 20-year quant audit completed
• v15.2 Trading Strategy: 6 thresholds, +19pp to +45pp advantage range
• projects/jobs-apply/_index: robust daily limit detection → automatic worker pause
• Audited lifetime project costs (not just past week)
• Fixed failed job queue clearing bug
• 343 automated code-review sessions across projects